Posts Tagged ‘causality’

Causality part II

Sunday, October 19th, 2008

I left it a little longer than a week, during which time I didn’t change any of the blogs, add or edit any posts, or even check the search results.

Today, the home page of the site is back up to #9 for the search term “search experiments”, which makes the previous change look something like the usual non-random churn.

Could it be that the initial dip was some kind of penalty, but the fact that no new splog posts have been published means that the penalty has diminished? It could, but there are a hundred other possible explanations. Beware of jumping to conclusions.

Causality, splogging and speculation

Thursday, October 9th, 2008

Here is a common issue for anyone involved in SEO or Google-watching, and I suppose in many other areas as well.

You take an action X. Event Y follows. You can build a plausible hypothesis for a connection between X and Y. X therefore caused Y.

The SEO version of this goes: you released new feature/code tweak/section on your website. Traffic went up the following week. New feature was a success! 

My latest version of this runs as follows: I experimented with some splogging on another blog (the relationship with this one is not disguised: they are cross-linked and hosted on the same account). I created a number of automatic posts using RSS-generated content about Google, ensuring that every time the word “search” appeared in the posts, it linked to the home page of this site. Before I did this, the home page of this site was #5 or #6 on Google, which it had been for a while. Today it is #20. So it might be very easy to jump to the conclusion that Google has spotted my nefarious tactics, and has penalised my site. 

Is that a reasonable conclusion based on the evidence?