No surprises here, happily. You’d expect Google to read the noindexed page, including the canonical link element, make the adjustment accordingly and index the destination page. That’s exactly what it did. Happy days.

Actually, it did it so quickly (compared with some other canonicals that I’ve implemented elsewhere) that I’m left wondering whether Google might actually be more inclined to pay swift attention to the canonical instruction if the page on which it is found is set not to be indexed. Just speculation, of course.

• Create two almost identical pages
• Link to the first one
• Set the first page to “noindex,follow”
• Give the first page a canonical link element in the head section, pointing to the second page
• Set the second page to “index, follow”

Then, sit back and wait for Googlebot to work its magic – and see whether the second page makes it into the index. Really, provided that Google respects the noindex tag, and there’s no good reason why it should not, there should be no chance of the first page making it into the index. So the sole question is whether the second page will make it into the index or not.

My expectation, and hope, is that it will, despite being unlinked from anywhere else. Further variations on this theme will follow if it does not, and may in any case.